As Donald Trump inches closer and closer to the nomination, members of the Republican establishment continue to fret about the affect his candidacy will have on down-ticket races in Congress. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is reported to have told associates that candidates will drop Trump "like a hot rock" if necessary in order to run their own campaigns - drawing parallels to his own reelection during President Bill Clinton's '96 electoral sweep.
A recent study by the Pew Research Center suggests that the Leadership has reason for concern: Pew downgraded the chances of Republican candidates in 10 House seats across the country, suggesting the Trump may make contentious house seats less winnable for Republicans and open up a pathway for Democrats to re-take the Senate.
So who are the vulnerable Republicans? Who could replace them? And who are the Democrats benefiting from the Trump effect?
Three Democratic incumbents in California - Jim Costa, Pete Aguilar and Raul Ruiz - have better re-election chances now that their districts have moved further left ideologically at the prospect of a Trump presidency. The same is true for Elizabeth Esty (CT05) and Brad Ashford (NE02).
On the Republican side, five incumbents are now less electable because of the Trump effect: David Young (IA03), Erik Paulsen (MN03), Tom Reed (NY23, who has endorsed Trump), John Katko (NY24) and Barbara Comstock (VA10). Their Democratic opponents now have a better chance of flipping these seats.
A Democrat takeover of the House still seems far-fetched, given the 30 seats required for a blue majority. But if 10 seats have already been rocked by the mere prospect of a Trump nomination, it definitely seems possible that we'll have a Democratic House when the Donald raises his right hand on January 17th, 2017.