All eyes on the Hawkeye – on Monday, Iowa voters will caucus to choose their Democratic and Republican nominees for president – the first state to do so this election season. Both the Republican and Democratic races are close: using a weighted average of polls, predicts Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have an equal chance of winning, and Bernie Sanders’ polling numbers have improved – within a five point striking distance of Hillary Clinton.

In a Republican field this crowded, even a third-place finish could help a candidate. But Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are hoping for outright victories. Cruz promised to visit each of the 99 counties before the caucus, and will be travelling the state all weekend. Will it make a difference? According to Crowdpac’s analysis of the ideological scores of each candidate, more Iowa counties are ideologically similar to Trump than to Cruz, but the Cruz team hopes his time in the state will pay off.

As Bernie Sanders’ polling numbers cut into to Hillary Clinton’s lead, her team will hope to avoid an upset like in 2008. Fortunately for Clinton, her Crowdpac score is more ideologically similar to most Iowa counties than Sanders’. Both candidates will hope dedicated supporters show up to the caucus on Monday.

Curious where your own county lies on the ideological scale? Want to make your own prediction in advance of Monday? Try our Iowa county lookup tool:


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