In just a few hours, New Hampshire voters will be next to cast their votes for 2016’s democratic and republican presidential candidates. After Hillary Clinton’s tenuous victory and Donald Trump’s narrow defeat in Iowa, Americans are on the edge of their seat to see how the Granite State will vote.
And at Crowdpac, we’re no exception. So we mapped the ideologies of New Hampshire’s counties to see which candidates most closely align.
A question on the minds of many political pundits is whether or not conservative voters will support more “establishment” candidates in the mold of Kasich, Bush, and Marco Rubio or cast their votes for Donald Trump, the outsider businessman who has largely dominated the GOP field. According to past donations of New Hampshire residents, voters in seven of the state’s ten districts are ideologically closer to the establishment candidates. Nevertheless, Trump, who has undeniable momentum and needs a first place finish, may defy odds and make history Tuesday. Either way, pundits largely agree that there are only 3-4 tickets out of New Hampshire - we’ll have to wait until after the polls close to find out exactly which candidates will catch a ride to the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary.
As for the democrats, the data shows New Hampshire far and away supports neighboring Vermont’s senator, Bernie Sanders. The polls agree - Nate Silver's 538 estimates a 99% probability of victory for Sanders in the Granite State.
So while there is virtually no way of predicting how Granite Staters will vote tomorrow night - there is no doubt about New Hampshire’s role in shaping the narrative of the primary contests to come, in a nomination fight that appears to be far from over.