It’s old news that President Obama raised a record-breaking $1.123 billion in the 2012 presidential election against Mitt Romney. With a little over a year until the 2016 presidential election, the question on everyone’s mind is which candidate will win over the donors that contributed to the jaw-dropping sum. We partially answered that question with our donor loyalty analysis. We found that of the donors who gave more than $200 for the 2012 election and then again for 2016, the vast majority gave to democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
What about the donors who have yet to put skin in the 2016 game? We call these people the uncommitted donors. They are the individuals who gave in 2012 and 2014, either directly to the Obama campaign, to the affiliated political action committee (PAC), Priorities USA Action, to American Bridge PAC, or the Democratic National Committee but still have not contributed to a 2016 campaign. Of the current democratic candidates, to whom will the uncommitted commit?
Let’s take a look at their choices:
It could be Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the most liberal of the democratic candidates, with a Crowdpac score of 8.7L. Or, it could be former First Lady, New York Senator, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a more moderate choice with a score of 6.5L. And then there’s a potentially more moderate option, current Vice President Joe Biden, with a score of 4.5L, should he decide to enter the race.
According to our analysis of political contributions to Obama or to the major democratic PACs in 2012 and 2014, 54% of uncommitted donors align most strongly with Hillary Clinton. We found that the average Crowdpac score of the uncommitted donor is 7.7L, almost the exact ideological midpoint between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. This explains Sanders’ coming in close second, with 42% of uncommitted donors sharing his position. Vice President Biden aligns with a mere 4% of uncommitted voters, far behind the other two candidates. Though he ran with Obama, it seems the current VP is just too moderate for the yet-to-donate donors.