With Ted Cruz and John Kasich exiting the race, Donald Trump's nomination as the GOP's general election candidate is all but secured. This has been a sobering moment for moderate conservatives, who find themselves faced with a difficult choice: heed Trump's call for unity in the GOP and back his controversial policy proposals, or do what a year ago would have been unthinkable - back Clinton.
The GOP establishment has been unequivocal in their rejection of Mr. Trump, who they see as the harbinger of the party's collapse. But they also have universally decried the prospect of a Clinton presidency. So which is worse? Who will they choose to back? The question is crucial as the support of the moderate conservative demographic could help tip the scales for either candidate.
We looked at contribution patterns of GOP donors, and it turns out that the establishment could conceivably side with Clinton. After each GOP primary candidate drops out, a fraction of their donors switches sides. This pattern holds even for recent dropout Ted Cruz, who was the most conservative candidate in the field: 20 of his donors have decided to contribute to Hillary Clinton's campaign since December. It is even more so the case when we look at John Kasich, who pitched himself as a moderate, common-sense conservative. In fact, the majority of Kasich donors who gave to someone else, gave to a Democrat.
By hovering over the names of GOP dropouts on the left, you'll notice a fraction of their donors will turn blue.